The end of French two sided politics

Everyone in France (and outside) now has to rethink its political affiliation in three dimensions.

 

After the victory of Emmanuel Macron, and the constant, tiring tension that came along, I feel the need to talk a little about French Politics.

Indeed, after listening to the mumblings “from the left” arguing that he is the evil servant of big corporations and banks,  “from the right” that he is an evil left-wing, family destructing, void of beliefs politician, and finally the screams of both sides (for once agreeing on something) angering  about the pretended lack of representativeness of his election, I do feel the need to square things up a little about French politics and by extension many others democracies politics.

So here it is in short :

Can everyone stop, one and for all, talking about “left” and “right” in politics. This has absolutely no meaning.

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Active managers survival guide in a passive management jungle

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This is a very depressing time for active fund managers, as the attack of passive asset management is brutal, flanking them from both an aggressive media coverage and strong cash outflows. Who indeed could have predicted that John Bogle, yes John Bogle Vanguard’s founder, would become such a rock-star today! His pictures and quotes are just all over my tweeter feed. And it is not going away soon…

And cash inflows/outflows are just even more worrying for them. As more than 30% of US assets under management were passively managed at year end 2016, and a clear momentum for a continued increase in 2017 dawns, traditional asset managers can actually start to be scared, at least. With good reasons to !

However, the current never ending beating up of active management became that strong and mainstream, while the answer given by active managers that shaky, that we could rightfully wonder if this is not getting a bit too far. Well, of course I must confess that I am among the first ones to give them a friendly slug when I can, sorry about that, but I also consider that they might need a helping hand guiding them out of this. There are some limits to plain criticism and being more constructive is possible.

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The French client of roboadvisors aka the “five-legged sheep”.

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In French language “rechercher le mouton à cinq pattes” ( lit. “searching for the five-legged sheep” ) is an idiom meaning searching for something that probably does not exist.

I would like to tell that I actually found what I was looking for, the client of a French roboadvisor, but I still haven’t.

It has been two years since roboadvisors got in France. I work in financial advise and asset management and meet regularly their potential clients. I am, as far as I know, in their theoretical target, as well as many of my friends and relatives. I often attend conference on the subject and exchange with participants…

But no. Still nothing. Still no client met. Impossible to find one. Neither from Yomoni, Advize, FundShop, MarieQuantier, WeSave… No a single one*. Yomoni was claiming around 1.500 clients at year end 2016, which seems good, but those 1.500 people seem to never bump into me.

*(to be honest I finally met one after publishing this post).

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Active and passive management, where is it going to end ?

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This post was originaly published in French on the website quantalys.com as an answer to Philippe Maupas’s posts on the subject.

Hello Philippe and thanks for you post.

Two points drew my attention while reading your posts. First of all, it is clear in the various studies presented that costs still constitutes the best leading indicator of future performance, may they be active or passive.

No surprise here, this is both intuitive and widely proved. It is still a good thing to remind to investors though.

Then, you raise the possibility that the growth of passive management, very strong for now, might get slowed down by the the upcoming arbitrage opportunities that should logically appear above a certain threshold of assets managed with a passive strategy, strategy which is uncorrelated with underlying economic reality and therefore prone to arbitrage.

But telling at which level this might happen is far from easy. There will be, I agree, a equilibrium level between active and passive asset management, but which one ?

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